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misterd on 13 January 2008
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Nidan said:

Sony will have to outsell MS by 147,000 units per week for the next year to catch MS lead by the end of 2008, which means that if MS continues the same sales numbers during 08 as 07 they would have to be selling as much as the Wii.

BINGO! And only the most diehard Sony fanboys could even conceive of this happening. At best Sony will catch up in late 2009,  but by then there's a good chance people will be talking about the XBox 720 launch in 2010.


 What i find hard to believe is many people on this site are claiming Sony has had a huge boost in sales, which is true, however this was done on the back of a great plan from sony, instead of dropping the price on it lucrative bravio LCD screens, it is giving away PS3's, which have been counted in the sales numbers.

I would just say that this was a great BACK UP plan - their original plan produced an overpriced piece of hardware no one wanted. 


 Moreso, this has had some effect on the momentum of Sony's PS3, however these promotions can only be short lived, until other manufacturer counter sonys plan with price reductions on their LCD screens. Launching their giveaway only 2 months from christmas allowed them to win the Christmas battle in the LCD area, while helping to promote the PS3.


 If you evaluate the sales volume over the period (NOV/DEC 07) MS clearly sold more units than Sony. Interesting enough i visited a number of retailers in Australia, and found that they were completely sold out of both Wiis and 360's. They did have a sign on the wii stand saying " sorry sold of off Wiis, but plenty of PS3s so thumbs up". talking to some salespeople, they said that they had sold out od 360s before christmas and couldn't get any until the suppliers reopened after new year.

While Australia is no more indicative of the whole market than my home town, the really telling number is the overall sales. Even with a $100 price drop, 2 new models, the BR advatage, and the strong branding of the PS name, Sony still couldn't beat out the 360. The sales of high ticket items tend to dry up fast after the holidays, and right now I don't think Sony has much more room to cut with the PS3.


Im not saying that the PS3 wont outsell the 360, but if it did, i would expect it will take another 2 years of astonishing numbers, and by then the war is lost. If MS ends the generation with +/- 20% market share compared to Sony, then that is a great victory for MS.


 Also anyone saying that MS blew any profit they were going to make last year with their $50 price drop is dreaming. The $50 price reduction was factored in to their plan. Also the $1 billion cost for the RROD was written off Mid last year.

Reports last year stated that MS would have either been in the black or come damn close were it not for the RROD issue. This year, they have cut the cost of the 360 with the new Falcon set (along with normal cost drops that occur with time), nearly doubled their user base, sold oodles of software AND don't have to deal with the RROD. The odds are very good that they'll be in the black this year, and wil have plenty of room to cut prices even further - maybe more than people are expecting. 


 I think MS will counter strongly this year, with a large competitive game lineup, and a more competitive price. My predictions is that we will be able to see the winners and losers from this generation by the end of 2008. My forecast is as follows

At the moment, it doesn't appear that MS has as strong a lineup as Sony, but it's close enough that a curveball or two (like a delay or disppointment for a big Sony title, or a new 360 IP taking off) could change the balance.

  •  Nintendo Biggest winner, with the largest amount of profit, and largest install base ( as long as they innovate over 2008)

Almost certain, and we should also start seeing some of those titles that have gone into development due to the bandwagon effect.

  • MS will turn constant profits in the gaming division from Mid 2008 onwards due to their install base. They will finish the generation with a market share 10-15% lower than  Sony.

Agree with the first half, not sure of the second. I can see MS ending up between +5% over Sony, or -10% under it by the time MS switches to a new platform. Of course it is then possible for the PS3 to beat the 360 after the fact, as the SNES did to the Genesis.

  • Sony will sell more units than MS by the end of the generation, however would have conceded the most amount of market share to both MS and Nintendo. They will report a small net profit from the PS3 business, but will need to change their plans for the PS4. 

 


The price is stil going to be a big factor with the PS3. It simply puts a ceiling on their user base. Unless Sony is desperate, I think MS will hit the mass market prices more than a year ahead of them. That's going to make it hard for Sony to keep up and still maintain a profit.

I think what we will see is a NA market that is in MS's camp, and Europe/Japan in Sony's. I think this will encourage MS to write off Japan in the near future and play hardall in the EU, hoping to do there in the next gen what they did this time in NA.