libellule said:
hum ...well, all is linked to the return to "0" that clealry is just a prediction at that moment (even if you seem to think it is a fair one). |
The return to zero thing is not a prediction. It's a basic fact of economics.
When an American buys something that another American has made, he pays for it in dollars, as he only has dollars to spend. Likewise, when an American buys something from China, he can only pay for it in dollars. A Chinese company does not want dollars, because dollars will not buy much in China (taxes, by law, have to be paid in yuan, workers will only work for yuan, most other companies in China will only accept yuan).
So, someone, somewhere will sell the American some yuan for his dollars. This could be a Chinese investor, the Chinese Government, some Chinese bank. Hell, it could even be some bank from some random country that has got its hands on a supply of yuan.
Now, the question is: why would someone be willing to exchange yuan for dollars? What benefit would a Chinese bank have for buying the dollars, and selling the yuan? The reason is that they know, in the future, people will want to be buying dollars so that they can buy goods from American countries - if Americans had nothing to sell, they wouldn't be able to buy anything.
Trade is trade. Whether it's a cow for 6 sheep, or a cow for $60 (and sheep are worth $10 each), or $60 for 100yuan. Both sides, given time, will always be equal. This is what I mean by return to zero, it's not a prediction. It's a fact of trade.
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I think the fundamental thing here is that, if you have a negative account, you are not poor. You only become poor if, for some reason you cannot afford to service that debt. When you buy a house, and take on a £400,000 mortgage, you do not become poor, in fact, in many ways, you become richer. You only become poor if you stop being able to make those monthly payments on the mortgage.







