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reviniente on 10 May 2011
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ethomaz said:

reviniente said:

On your first point, what I state is that the expansion or reduction of said gap is not constant but cyclical: yes, it will shrink during the first semester and slow down during the 3rd quarter although it continues to get smaller, but then, come November, the Holidays' sales explode, albeit not proportionally for every console (usually Ninty gets the lion's share), and the gap widens again. You're assuming the PS3 will continue to lead the weekly sales indefinitely. That is unrealistic, specially in the Americas, X360 mega-market.

On your second point, you are confusing total figures with percentages. Yes, PS3 still outsold X360 5.81 to 1. Yet last week it did it by 9.99 to 1, while selling less units. As you well mention, 'anything sold in Golden Week helps to make a huge percente increasing', yet the percentage increase for PS3 wasn't nearly as massive. And what about my bit about Amazon. Hmm... I still believe something's afoot in the Land of the Rising Sun.

Also, don't downplay 2,000 extra X360 sold. X360 owners are people, too!

I can't understand what you talking about...

360 (with price cut and Kinect effect) lead Q4 2010 by 500k
PS3 (no price cute no effect) lead Q1/Q2/Q3 2010 by 2,000k

So 360PS3 GAP was... wait I need to think about... some more time... oh yeah DECREASING.

When the GAP widens?

2005? Yes, 1.17m/1.17m (no PS3)
2006? Yes, 5,48m/6.65m (PS3 in US/JP just in November)
2007? Yes, 0.15m/6,80m (PS3 in Europe just in April)
2008? Yes, 0.97m/7.77m
2009? No, -2.88m/4.89m (PS3 Slim and price cut)
2010? No, -0.84m/4.05m (360 Slim and Kinect)
2011? No, -0.62m/3.43m

So what a hell you talking about... the Holidays didn't change anything (PS3 in Q1 already outsold 360 more than 360 outsold PS3 in holidays)... PS3 continue outselling 360 since 2009... after all the only year 360 sold more than PS3 was 2008 because before that PS3 was not in all markets.

Now the percent thing. In three days of Golden Week...

PS3 sold 5,003 units more or 27%
360 sold 2,210 units more or 118%

The percentage says nothing... I have 1 unit and sold more 4 = 400%... I have 100 units and sold more 50 = 50%. Of course, the console that selling nothing have HUGE percent increase... the console that already selling good not.

My point is the gap is decreasing, not being eliminated. The holidays decelerate the speed at which the PS3's closing the gap often reverting a substantial portion of the gain made the 3 previous quarters. Think of it like this: YtD the PS3 is ahead by 700k units in 4 months. Are you willing to bet it will end up outselling the X360 in 2011, by 2.1 mil come 01/01/2112? The PS3 overtaking the X360 before 2013 is a fantasy.

On the Japan sales matter, you're misunderstanding my statement. I'm not questioning how percentages work, I'm wondering how they behave. Why would the X360 double their sales in Golden Week with no exclusives released? It's not a PS3 matter, it's an X360 matter. It certainly is not a arithmetics matter. And could someone go check Amazon.co.jp and explain the points card thing to me.