I agree with most of your points but i dont think Sony will release the PS4 untill 2014 to be honest. I also think the PS4 will be alot more stronger than the PS3 and if Sony has learned anything this gen it will also be very well secured. Also i dont think Sony will use the orginal Blu-ray format for the PS4 next gen. History has proven this. I am thinking they will more than likely use BDXL which is basically a double sided/double layered blu-ray disc compressed with slightly more memory when maxed out.(100/128GB) (If you wanna know more just search BDXL on google)
PS1 Disc Format = CD-ROM
PS2 Disc Format = DVD
PS3 Disc Foramt = Blu-ray
PS4 Disc Format = BDXL or Blu-ray XL
As for M$. Unless they start buying GOOD first party studios and making new IP's i honestly dont see them surviving next gen. Kinect was not as big as i thought it would be and they cant keep relaying on Halo to give them good exclusive sales. COD will more than likely be a dead or dying franchise by then and the FPS genre in general will not be as big as it is now.(which is one of the main reason's they have succeed very well in america this gen compared to the gen before).There console will more than likely come out mid 2013 and god knows how much XBL will be by then...
As for Nintendo i agree with you 100%. I think the only reason why Nintendo is even making a HD console is so they can try to get into the hardcore market which i dont think they will succeed in doing. Sony and M$ have already established a very well drivin audience and unless Nintendo does something unbelievable crazy for the good i dont think they will succeed at getting the hardcore gamers. Though some of the old IP's like Street Fighter and Resident Evil may finally see a return into there home console market.
Overall i see Sony regaining its crown in the console market next gen in 1st with Microsoft staying in 2nd and Nintendo in 3rd.
I also think NGP will beatout the 3DS in the handheld market since it has alot more features and power than the 3DS. And the general public looks at the 3DS as a DS with 3D which unfortunally is not true.
:)
