Was going to make these threads a few days ago, but I was too lazy. 
Anyway, here's my general predictions for what will happen with all consoles, including handhelds. This thread is for...
Handhelds
I'll start with the handheld market, as it has already officially begun with the release of the 3DS. 3DS sales already seem to be dropping quite a bit since its release, with it being beat by the PSP for several weeks in Japan and this week in EMEAA. Nintendo also failed to meet its shipped projection of 4 mil 3DS units for the end of March, missing it by ~ 400K. I think the problem is 50% due to people's perception of the 3DS being merely a 3D version of the DS, 25% due to the price, and the remaining 25% due to lack of appealing SW. If sales continue like this Nintendo may consider dropping the price before the holiday season, though I think they will probably want at least a whole year at the $249 price point. Having said that, I definitely don't think the 3DS will end up being a failure, but I also don't see it selling near what the DS has sold, as well as it seeing heavier competition from Sony with...
The NGP. I think Sony is going to claim closer to 50% marketshare this time around. With what seems a great line-up so far, the NGP may have the library/3rd party support to pull off that ~50%. The dual analog sticks, in combination of the touchscreen/touchpad, should provide for some interesting control layout options and gameplay. Then you have Japan's recent switch to supporting the PSP of late, which should continue into next gen for the release of the NGP. And having a COD game definitely won't hurt it in Americas. Of course, all this depends on 2 important things, price and launch line-up. I truly believe Sony wouldn't even attempt selling the WiFi only model for more than $299, though if they really want to hurt the 3DS, they should try to price for the same $249. I think either price will seem acceptable to majority of potential buyers, while anything higher would be near suicide for the NGP. Another thing Sony needs to do to help the chances of the NGP succeeding is to release at least 2 or 3 must have games at launch, or very close to it. Those 2 things, coupled with a holiday release, should see a nice start for the NGP.
So if Sony can get the price point and games right for the NGP, I think that it and the 3DS will have a constant fight over the lead for handheld market. They will exchange leadership of the market probably yearly as either one gets better games and/or price cuts, but neither will truly dominate the market.
Any thoughts?
Edit (Added from new post): Decided to give life to this old thread, especially since Sony just announced the NGP/Vita price. $249!! The exact same price as the 3DS. I'm going to have to change my prediction a little.
It seems Sony has bested my price prediction. With the Vita's price point + great 3rd party support + the 3DS not so stellar sales of late, I think Sony can get more of the market than my original prediction of ~50% (I was mainly thinking somewhere around the ballpark of 40%-48%). Now, I'm feeling pretty confident that Sony, if they continue with their Vita support, can actually be the first company to best Nintendo in the handheld market, claiming 60%-70% marketshare. What do you guys think?
