sorry if already posted since it is 2 days old but here it is anyway since i couldn't find a topicon it
We spoke to four leading analysts to find out what impact the Warner Bros. Blu-ray deal will really have on PS3. Also, Michael Pachter believes another PS3 price cut will be in place by the end of '08.
Posted by James Brightman on Wednesday, January 09, 2008
With Warner Bros. (and associated companies like New Line and HBO) committing exclusively to Blu-ray the format war seems to be nearing the end with a likely victory for Blu-ray. Assuming that's the case, we were wondering how much this would boost PS3 sales (if at all). Did Sony's gamble on a proprietary format finally pay off?
GameDaily BIZ got in touch with several leading game industry analysts to get their two cents on the potential fallout of the Warner deal, as it concerns the console war.
Mike Hickey of Janco Partners seems to believe the impact of a Blu-ray victory could be quite substantial. "We believe Warner's exclusive support for Blu-ray will eventually prove to be the determining 'win' in the current high definition DVD format war. We expect Sony's PS3 product will benefit from an eventual consumer and retail awakening of Blu-ray as the winning high definition format. If Blu-ray can win the current format war, the true value of the PS3 can be unlocked, and will likely lead to an acceleration of PS3 sales," he said.
Hickey continued, "Increased PS3 sales and subsequent installed base growth will motivate 3rd party game developers as the market opportunity for them increases, which should lead to better relative software offerings. We believe the Warner exclusive Blu-ray news is good for the PS3, 3rd party game developers/publishers, and the video game industry as a whole."
Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities thinks it's an important win, but the real impact won't be felt for some time since 1080p HDTV penetration is still fairly low. He does believe, however, that by the end of this year we'll start seeing a spike and that Sony will likely cut the price on PS3 by then as well.
"Phil Rosenberg [Senior Vice President, Sales and Business Development, SCEA] said at a conference that something around 70 – 80 percent of PS2 owners used the console as their first DVD player. The same will likely be true of PS3/Blu-ray," Pachter said. "The difference this time is that you can't enjoy the full experience unless you have a 1080p TV, and we are still below 10 percent penetration. I think as overall HDTV penetration crosses 50 percent of households (probably late this year), Blu-ray will become more relevant, and PS3 will have an advantage."
He added, "So look for a spike late this year, likely coinciding with another price cut."
Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets is encouraged by the Warner deal as well and believes it will eventually help PS3 push more hardware. "Blu-ray has clearly gained momentum, and the upper hand, and the Warner announcement also provides a boost to the format, as well as for the advocates of Blu-ray as a standard. That said, locking up the suppliers of content and hardware manufacturers is only part of the equation. Consumers also must decide that they need a Blu-ray player, which seems more and more likely as prices decline," he said. "As for the PS3, it definitely can't hurt, despite the fact that gamers early in this console cycle have shown a preference for simple and more intuitive experiences (Wii and DS) over the traditional video games. But as the next-gen games continue to improve, and hardware prices reach more reasonable levels, I think we will see a better uptake of the PS3."
Finally, DFC Intelligence's David Cole noted that it's games, of course, that will be the ultimate determinant in the console wars. Blu-ray just happens to be a bonus for PS3 owners.
"I don't think Blu-ray alone is enough to get people to commit to a game platform," cautioned Cole. "However, if consumers are trying to decide between a game platform and they feel both are fairly equal in terms of games, then I think Blu-ray could be the swinging factor for the PS3. Nevertheless, the key factor is games. I don't think Blu-ray would ever be a swinging factor as big as say a game like Halo 3. The biggest boost for PS3 sales will most likely be 1) lower price; 2) more exclusive game software and only after that Blu-ray."
