| TheSource said: I don't think it will neccessarily stay at 190k/week past August, but even so my numbers would have the current price drop less effective than the previous price drop...but still increasing 50% per region for a bit (its not meant to be 100% worldwide - just 50-60% up per region which happens to be 60k --> 110k, 45k --->70k, and 10k --> 15k roughly. We're certainly going to see at least a 25% lift for quite some time. |
Your problem is you're using March numbers to extrapolate sales in the summer. Don't forget that the Wii had Galaxy 2 last year, and nothing of that caliber this year. Even so it was down to ~150k in July. The Wii was doing more than double last year for the current weeks, why do you think that won't hold true in the summer? Especially since the software situation won't be any better.
Also 60 to 110k is an 83% increase.
Most likely the Wii will be down to 60-80k in the summer without a price drop. A 50-60% increase would put it around 90k-130k.
The Wii did 254k last July (NPD). Do you really expect it to be up to 400k this year? Up 60% when the Wii has been down over 50% YoY lately. If that YoY decrease held true through July, then you'd be saying the price cut will give it a 214% increase.
