superchunk said:
TheSource said:
The hardware sales will be nice but software is still somewhat disastrous potentially:
Nintendo's console history for software is:
500m -> 380m --> 225m --> 210m ---> 1.2b (guess for Wii)
Sony's is something like this:
960m --> 1.58b ---> 800m (guess for PS3)
My guess for Microsoft is something like this:
225m ---> 750m (X360)
The HD market for sw may only be 1.6b, after being 1.6b on PS2 alone in SD, and 1.2b on Wii alone with HD games at double the cost or more to make. Thats effectively 1.8b from PS2 & Xbox / 250k to 1.6b to PS3 & X360 at double development costs, akin to 1.8b / 250k profitable games (7200) vs. 1.6b / 500k profitable games (3200). Third parties figured that out, so the eventual ~700m Wii third party market adds 2800 or so profitable games for about 6000, down from 7200 (down from a theoretical 7600 with GC)
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Interesting.
HW has good growth yet SW is in decline.
Doesn't make sense to me. I'm thinking the estimates have to be off for SW. It just doesn't make sense that HW could grow up to 100m more units yet overall the SW is about constant. I'd expect some growth... maybe not and equal %, but some none-the-less.
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Software isn't in decline at least as far as total numbers. It'll probably be about 300 million away from the PS2/XBX/GC total when we get Q4 shipments. Though hardware is nearing the total from last gen.
I don't really know his point about potentially profitable games. If the top 10 games on the Wii had all sold 250k, it doesn't mean that the other games automatically gain an extra 245 million. Plus it ignores the fact that the digital markets aren't tracked, and the games in those markets are generally quite cheap to make.
