HappySqurriel said:
| richardhutnik said:
Here is the thing about luck. With a LOT of attempts, even at low odds, a certain state can be reached. Actually, the more attempts, the wider range of possibilities. So yes, throw in hundreds of man-years, by hundreds if not thousands of individuals, you will end up with getting advancement (assuming low probability blow up humanity doesn't happen). The thing is though, at any single point in time, the odds are low of getting a needed breakthrough, scientific discovery or creative work, that is relevant. You can't predict this by its nature. There is no guarantee either. The right factors may or may not come together to make it happen. SOME environments make it more likely to happen, but then there is a need also for certain things in place to happen.
Pretty much here, in any business climate that is a boom, it will by default, produce a certain number of extremely wealthy people. The thing is that you can't predict who will be that, because of a lack of understanding of all the nuances of what is going on. But you could end up saying it will. With the Internet boom, it was bound that there would be a winner in the social network site, like Facebook. The same goes for Google or others. And there is no guarantee these entities will exist forever either. Facebook might get divided up into bits. Other things replace Google, and the wheels change. Even when it comes to videogame companies, none seems to stay on top forever. Things happen. People do Blue Ocean strategies, and get lucky and change the game.
Then factor in the Black Swan, that isn't even the conditions, that was only seen in the sense that seers of the future tend to be like monkeys at a typewriter that you are bound to get a few correct. These change everything. The fortunate who were in the right place at the right time benefit from it, or avoid a disaster.
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So, correct me if I'm wrong, but you're saying that William Shakespeare was untalented because it is theoretically possible that given a million years, a million monkeys on a million typewriters could eventually write one of his plays? Einstein wasn't remarkably intelligent because if someone combined all the permutations and combinations of equations they would have eventually stumbled across the theory of relativity?
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I was referring to the area of making predictions (with the monkeys at a typewriter), and seeing the future. In an area where you have a large number of people making predictions, like on the Internet, you are bound to run into a few that are correct. This links back to what one knows and making sound decisions on what the future would be and position themselves to capitalize on trends that may be coming down that have a platform to act.
In the case of Shakespeare, there were circumstances that came together that enabled his works to be recognized. And the same goes for Einstein and intelligence. Change a few things, and possibly they aren't known. We have a different timeline, or circumstances happen that prevent them from doing what they did, or their works get buried.
Also show, in this that Einstein or Shakespeare ever became rich. Did they?
