By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
richardhutnik on 04 April 2011
Edit Thread
Kasz216 said:
richardhutnik said:
Kasz216 said:
 

The financial markets got wiped out because of stupid people.

Not on Wal-street.

The derivitives market was based on the belief that there wouldnt be a nationwide housing bubble.  Which was seen as an impossibility because the factors that cause the ups and downs of housing markets are local events.

The government, brilliant as they were decided to centralize housing values via lending acts and lowering housing insurance.  This causes a nationwide bubble that busted.

A lot of smart people got out when Wallstreet crashesd too by the way.  Denmark and Norway, two of the smartest governments, made a killing.  As did a few other smart nations.

Also, it's not survivor bias.  If 20 people say "I have this great idea, and people will love it"  and they all follow the same steps and only one of them succeeds....

then they in fact were smarter and more perceptive, because they were the one who did have something everybody would want.  The scenario they were in was not random.

Survivor bias is when you survive because a genocidal mad man has 9 bullets and 10 people to shoot.

Peoples purchasing habits aren't so random.

First, if people who had nothing to do with the financial markets get killed by stupid people, like lose their jobs, exactly WHAT does that say about luck then?  Why would markets gets wiped out by stupidity if people are smart?  Aren't they smart enough to avoid disasters?

Second, if it is only stupid people who lose money, then what about Long-Term Capital Management?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

They were a bunch of idiots also?  No, they were individuals who presumed that their mathematical models were robust enough, and certain abnormal things won't happen.  I was also informed in another thread that NO ONE foresaw that the economic meltdown would happen.   Yet there were a few, not many, and then it was in hindsight they look smart, like Peter Schiff.

Also, nonsense on thinking people are brilliant and so on.  People's purchases are driven by emotion, and they are able to replicate over and over and over and over bubble conditions, even when the outcome is known, due to greed:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/body/mind-over-money.html

 

 Supposedly "smart" people do get wiped out.  They fail to see what is going on, and get caught up in an arms race of risk, that results in a lot crashing and burning.  Sure, look back and blame government, but it seems natural to risk too much, in case of things going bad. BUT when the going is good, it is up and up and up above the norm.

Individuals like Donald Trump are noted for doing this overleveraging, which has highs and lows WAY beyond what normal expected outcome should be:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump

2008 financial crisis

Trump has been caught in the 2008 financial crisis as sales for his Trump International Hotel and Tower in Chicago have been lagging and he failed to pay a $40m loan to Deutsche Bank in December.[35] Arguing that the crisis is an Act of God, he evoked a clause in the contract to not pay the loan and initiated a countersuit asserting his image has been damaged.[35] Deutsche Bank has in turn noted in court that 'Trump is no stranger to overdue debt' and that he has twice previously filed for bankruptcy with respect to his casino operations.[35]

On February 17, 2009 Trump Entertainment Resorts filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy; Trump having stated on February 13 that he would resign from the board.[36] Trump Entertainment Resorts has three properties in Atlantic City.

A) Again, it's not luck.  You are trying to apply a very overly broad term as luck.  The people who were wiped out in the financial crisis were NOT a random group of people.

 B) Your own quotes on Donald Trump specifically show why your Donald Trump quote doesnt count. "Deutsche Bank has in turn noted in court that 'Trump is no stranger to overdue debt' and that he has twice previously filed for bankruptcy with respect to his casino operations."  Trump very much overplays the risks and has a backup to get himself out of it.  Not really luck. 

C) Even if taken as luck, you are now showing again that luck mostly isn't why people are super rich, again going against the context of your arguement.  Afterall, you are saying "What about these smart people that would of been rich any oftherime who aren't rich in this very rare occasion."

D) This doesn't show luck for a simple reason that people aren't succeeding who shouldn't of been in other cases, it's just everybody who previously succeeded failed.

List the categories of people who are extremely wealthy and how they got the wealth.  On that, about the only thing that a person can bring to a table that would not be considered luck is an irrational determination to keep trying over and over, combined with a humility to back off when persistence in an area that would never pan out.  Everything else comes from things they didn't bring.  Individuals can look to move to areas where the chance of positive outcomes is superior.  Money afford this more than a lack of it.  Same thing with a person like Trump, who established a large number of connections.  More resources afford more ability to take chances.  But the thing about chance is that it is out of your control.