MGS4 on 360....maybe?

[Bodhesatva]

Blue3 said:

Bodhesatva said:

 

That can't make the CFO happy. If the average Namco game requires 500,000 units sold to break even, I'd assume that 800,00 or 1,000,000 copies of MGS4 would be a reasonable assumption for the break-even point. At this point, the odds of selling considerably more than 1,000,000 copies are slim.

At this point Resistance has already done a million.

By the time it hits 3 million will be a walk in the park.

 

 

That's partly because the launch titles were so meagre -- Resistance was easily the best game available.

 

Consider GTA: San Andreas. It did spectacularly well. It sold 25 million copies. There are 110 million PS2 consoles. This means it sold to approximately 20-25 percent of PS2 owners.

Unless there are unusual circumstances (such as the system has just launched and has a total of 10 games), most games -- even really really good ones -- can't expect to sell to more than 25 percent of system owners. It's just incredibly uncommon historically. Assuming that MGS4 isn't a magical mystical game that breaks historical trends (it's possible, I suppose), and assuming the PS3 doesn't somehow launch into the stratosphere, passing 10 million systems sold by the time the game comes out, I strongly doubt will see much more than 2 million copies of this game.