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Knowing a small "shovelware" developer, the bar for getting a DS (and probably 3DS) developer kit is pretty low ... and with digital distribution of games, I would expect the bar to be set lower.

With that said, I highly doubt that Nintendo wants nearly as many developers or apps as the iPhone has; and they would (probably) be entiely happy if the top 1% of apps found their way to the 3DS, and they received a similar number of original apps for their system. Essentially, having Agry Birds on the 3DS would be something Nintendo wants, having the 99 low quality Angry Birds clones is not something Nintendo wants.