I will bet Kingdoms is not coming out this year. If its a graphical beast then it will take time, Forza 3 on the other hand was a racing game.
And 2009 sucked for MS and 2010 E3 was bad so I don't get your "we got great exclusives every year from MS".
My bet is that they will announce 3 core games(non kinect) out of which one will be Halo and will be released this year(because they have a Halo every year), a couple of timed exclusive games and they will show off xbox live and kinect, and new kinect games. Also games like Forza 4, Gears of war 3 and Star wars kinect.
Shadow Complex on E3 is doubtful because I thought it was an XBLA title?







