The video game market as a whole is growing, but...

[Played_Out]

Bodhesatva said:

Played_Out said:
Each successive generation experiences market growth. No generation yet had ever deviated from this formula. And although the growth rate in established markets (US, Japan) may slow down, new markets will continue to open up.

Using anecdotal evidence to support your theories about waning genres leads to false conclusions though. For instance, Street Fighter 2 was a massive cultural phenomenon because it revolutionised the fighting genre by allowing players to select a range of characters with their own distinct set of moves; by the time SF3 came out, far superior games such as Virtua Fighter and Tekken had arrived on the scene and the 2D fighter was dead.

Soul Caliber 3 sold worse than it's predecessor because it wasn't as good, and people who'd already bought SC2 had no reason to buy another fighter that was nearly identical. The second release of a particular franchise on any given platform almost always sells less than the first (taking the PS2 as an example: MGS2>MGS3, GT3>GT4, FFX>FFX-2)

The key issue to bear in mind is that, as the market grows, so too does the competition. The bigger the pie, the more people that want a piece.

I see lots of problems with this. First, your dismissal of the three "anecdotal" examples of Tekken, Soul Calibur and Street Fighter seems a little odd; if you want, I can also add Virtua Fighter to this mix, and then what are we left with? What traditional fighting franchises exist outside of these 4? Guilty Gear was never a major seller to begin with, and I can't think of a single other traditional fighter that has sold over 1 million copies. If Tekken/Street Fighter/Soul Calibur were 3 examples in a sea of millions, maybe I would agree, but these are BY FAR the three biggest fish in a sea of about 50, so it's a lot more meaningful than you give it credit for.

As to your second point, you are incorrect. Lots of games and franchises see increases over the course of a generation -- Grand Theft Auto, Halo, and Dynasty Warriors are all examples from last generation. There isn't a trend to follow here. The example you've given -- Final Fantasy -- is actually an excellent example of a general downward trend of a genre, not of a particular console. VII sold much better than VIII, which sold about as much as X, which sold better than X-2, which sold better than XII. It isn't a straight line downward, but the series is clearly in decline.

Whereas, again, series and/or genres that are increasing in popularity, such as Halo 3 (which is clearly going to outsell Halo 2 despite being on a smaller installed base) and Grand Theft Auto have seen increasing sales.

If we want a quick and dirty breakdown, I see these genres notably increasing in popularity recently:

First Person Shooters
Third Personson Shooters
Massively Multiplayer Online Games
Mini Game Compilations
Self Improvement Games

I see these genres as stagnant or in decline:

Football/Basketball/"Traditional" Sports Games
Racing Simulators
Japanese RPGs
Fighting Games

 

To clarify, my main arguments are thus:

1.) Anecdotal evidence is not proof.
2.) When a game becomes a big hit, many other games emerge that are similar, and inevitably they will chip away at the success of the game that started the trend.

Point 2 is what I was refferring to in regards to Street Fighter 2. A game does not have to be a mainstream success to diminish the popularity of a major franchise (the market typically becomes flooded with crap), but for the sake of argument, lets look at some popular examples. According to VGChartz' (incomplete) data, fighting franchises released since SF2 that have sold more than 1m include:

Killer Instinct
Mortal Kombat (this was the first game to really stick a knife in SF2)
Dead or Alive
Super Smash Bros (okay, that one's dubious as it's not really a fighter)

Other fighting series that have been popular enough to warrant sequels include:

King of Fighters
Battle Arena Toshinden
Marvel vs. Capcom
Capcom vs. SNK
Fatal Fury
Bushido Blade
Power Stone
Fighting Vipers
Tobal
Star Gladiator (I'm really scraping the barrel now, but my point still stands)

As to my theory about certain franchise's decreasing sales, I am not saying that there is a universal trend, as that would contradict my central argument that anecdotal evidence proves nothing. I am simply saying that in the majority of cases, franchises will experience decline within a generation. GTA and Halo buck this trend because they are massive cultural phenomenon; Dynasty Warriors has experienced severe fluctuation and therefore provides no real evidence either way. Once again: anecdotal evidence is not proof. It is worth noting, however,  that a growing install base can account for increases in sales between franchise instalments, but not a decrease.

Your argument collapses when you try to use Final Fantasy to refute my claim, but conveniently left out FF9, which sold less than previous instalments on the PS1, but also sold considerably less than FFX on the PS2. If you include FF9, it would completely validate my hypothesis!

In summary: I am not suggesting that declining franchise sales is solely intra-generational. I am not even claiming that your central hypothesis regarding the waning popularity of certain genres is wrong (in fact, in many cases I would agree). I am simply pointing out the flaws in your methodology.