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Personally, I expect it will have a lot to do with what the exchange rate with the Yen is near to its release ...

The yen has appreciated 150% (relative to the US dollar) since the Nintendo DS and PSP were released; and if those systems released today the DS would be $225 and the PSP would be $325 if the price in yen was preserved. Over the next year, it is entirely possible that the yen could be an additional 10% to 20% higher. Or, to put it another way, I wouldn't be surprised if the NGP is $350 US even if it launches at the same price the PSP did (in Yen).