Let's do a few quick calculations to see when it would be plausible for the Wii to go over 50%:
Going over 50% means outselling PS3+360 combined. The current gap between Wii and PS3+360 combined is of 5.57 million, or 5570k.
Last week, the PS3 and the 360 sold 474k combined, but this number will likely go down between 25% and 50% due to the holiday effect wearing out. By calculating those percentages, let's say that they'll end up at 240-350k combined for many weeks in the year.
The Current production level of Wii systems is said to be of 1.8 million units per month, or ~410k units per week. If it continues selling out (which is quite plausible at this time), this means it will be outselling PS3+360 combined by 60-170k weekly.
Let's now see how many weeks it would take to clear the 5570k gap for each of these bounds:
5570k / 60k = 93 weeks (almost 2 years)
5570k / 170k = 32 weeks (a bit more than 7 months)
This is a very rough analysis and doesn't take the impact of PS3's and 360's games into account, nor possible increases in Wii production levels, but it gives us an idea of when 50% Wii market-share could happen.
Conclusion: If you believe that the Wii will continue to sell out, it's quite possible for the Wii to reach 50% market-share during this year. If it doesn't reach it before the holiday season, all will depend on holiday supply.
My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957
