I honestly believe that the next Nintendo console will arrive, at most, in late 2012 and the next Sony and MS`s consoles, 6 months after.
Some people think that Xbox 360 and PS3 will/can last 10 years like PS2. Now, did any of the former reached the success that PS2? Were they the synonymous of videogames like PS2? - think core and casual market.
PS2 lasted 10 years - and dying - because it was all that (not going into what made PS2, PS2). That`s why it also crushed the competition: Dreamcast, Xbox and Gamecube.
But there`s another reason why it was successful: PS1 was a hit, a huge hit. And after that the playstation brand was set in stone for PS2. It`s not easy to fight that.
A WiiHD would be pointless because there will not be a really good reason for 3rd parties to invest time and money on it. 1st party games only for a new upgraded Wii probably would not work. They could probably make more damage than good. A WiiHD now and new console a few years after doesn`t seem a good business decision as Sony and MS wouldn`t sit on their asses forever.
I believe that 3rd parties will be the focus of Nintendo on the next generation. The same way that they are courting them with 3DS. And if 3DS works, 3rd parties will be more willing to bet on Nintendo`s side!
What would that mean?
Ok, imagine Wii 2 in late 2011 - 6 months after that with 3rd parties on their side this time and no competition for at least 6 months to a year. Isn´t that a risk factor for MS and Sony?
Nintendo already has a strong casual (market) support going for them. If they can get a grasp on 3rd parties and make them successful on Wii 2 they could be even more successful with Wii 2 than they are/were with Wii and that could really harm MS and PS sales.
If this happens - and i believe that Nintendo will do anything in it`s power to make sure that happens - Xbox360 and PS3`s sales will really decline and new hardware will be introduced quickly.
