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I think when both consoles drop to $249, the PS3 will at least start selling neck and neck with the 360 in Americas, with them alternating between who is in first every few weeks.  But when the PS3 drops to $199, LOOK OUT!  At that time, the PS3 should be able to stay ahead of the 360 almost every week.  Having said that, it will still never be able to completely chip away at the gap the 360 has on the PS3 in Americas.  But Japan and EMEAA, the PS3 will be able to increase its gap by quite a bit.