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Blu-Ray may (has/will) win because Sony was willing to lose far more than anyone else was inorder to capture the HD-Movie format; Sony has already lost billions, has lost billions in potential revenues (over the next several years), and has damaged a major brand.

Looking back, Toshiba and the DVD Forum could have lost a similar ammount to Sony and "given" away HD-DVD drives to both Microsoft and Nintendo and had people download their HD-DVD Movie player for a fee ($50 to $100).