http://www.itbusinessedge.com/blogs/rob/?p=182
The article talk about how HD-DVD was winning, and since PS3 was failing in the beginning of its life compared to the success that PS2 had, if Microsoft had won the console war and not lost to the Wii, it would have emerged as the HD format winners too.
It goes on to explain Toshiba made the price to heavy for Sony, so high that it depended to heavily on winning the HD war; while even if HD-DVD failed Toshiba wouldn't have as much of a problem. (They are producing the cell anyway)
"
When Toshiba got Paramount and Dreamworks to go exclusively HD-DVD, it cornered Sony and put a spotlight on Time Warner. It gave Sony time to ensure Time Warner would not move to the HD-DVD camp. Now people are speculating that Paramount will switch back to Blu-Ray, and few seem to believe it when it says it won’t.
A critical element, the PS3 game system, initially should have assured an early victory for Sony. Instead, the Blu-Ray technology made the PS3 too expensive for the market, moving Sony from first to a distant third in that segment. Even so, Sony was selling PS3s at a much higher rate than the combined sales of HD-DVD and Blu-Ray standalone players.
Toshiba needed to cripple PS3 sales, and the weapons were the Xbox 360, which had an HD-DVD option selling in comparatively low volumes, and the Nintendo Wii, which had dominated the market since launch.
There was no apparent focus on moving more Xbox 360 HD-DVD accessories, and Nintendo was manufacturing-constrained, shifting sales over mostly to the PS3, which was seen as newer than the Xbox 360. Toshiba had a significant price advantage on its HD-DVD player, but it allowed prices to creep up during the buying period. This market is incredibly price-sensitive; once prices crept over the critical break point of $200, they slowed sharply because people had set their value point at the earlier prices."
It goes on to explain further what Toshiba should have done. I think it is an interesting read.
