| melbye said: N6- Late 2012 or early 2013 PS4- LATE 2015 New XBOX- wish never, but early to mid 2015 |
Wow, you really want Sony and Microsoft out of the market that badly?
In the not too distant future (next 18 to 24 months) very low cost hardware will be able to produce graphics that in many ways rivals what people have become accustomed to in big budget pre-rendered movies; certainly, there will still be differences but these will be more in line with watching a 10 year old Pixar movie compared to watching their latest release than what we would currently associate with playing videogames. It isn’t just graphics either, and there will be more processing power and memory available for physics and AI than people know who to take advantage of; after all, I’ve personally seen some very impressive real-time computational fluid dynamics demonstrations on fairly modest modern mid-range PCs.
What this means is we're hitting a point where it will (realistically) take 10 years and 100 times the processing power to create something that has as meaningful of an improvement on processing power as the HD console's had over the Wii. If Nintendo chooses to release a fairly modest gaming console in 2012, even if Sony or Microsoft release their system at $200 more expensive than Nintendo's system launched at, the processing power improvement Sony and Microsoft would receive by launching 2 years later will be meaningless.
If this happened, Nintendo would have 2 years to do what Sony did in 12 to 18 months with the PS2; and that is to make their next system the "default" choice for consumers and developers. As long as Nintendo doesn't "screw up" this wouldn't be that difficult; and the videogame market would start looking like the MP3 player market.
Now, I want to be clear that this isn't a prediction of what will happen because I honestly don't believe that either Sony or Microsoft would leave Nintendo in the market alone for more than 12 to 18 months
