Next generation predictions.

[oni-link]

Squilliam said:

archbrix said:

Now there I completely agree; I didn't mean to infer that the next Nintendo would perform like the Dreamcast.  That's just not in the cards no matter what happens next gen.

My point was that I don't see Nintendo releasing a system so powerful that it completely dwarfs what the current HD systems can do.  Sure, it's possible they could design a console near the capabilities of Epic's new Unreal demo, but they would either have to charge a fortune for it or sell it at a major loss, neither of which is likely.  All they'd have to do to sell millions upon millions and start out profitable would be to release a console that slightly outperforms the HD twins at a mass-market price, with a new (or far improved) hook that makes everyone want it. 

You'll be surprised how much difference an extra 0.5 / 1 / 1.5 GB of RAM would do alone when considering a comparison between the NES 6 and current generation consoles. The current generation consoles are all RAM starved and it's the easiest way to improve the look of next generation titles by raising texture resolution.

Anyway what really matters isn't the current generation graphics hardware but the next generation on the 28nm process node, how much outright performance it offers within their thermal budget, what that thermal budget is and the relative efficiency of a modern GPU at performing modern rendering techniques. A NES 6 GPU would likely be 5 generations newer than current generation consoles. R5xx, R6xx, R7xx, R8xx, R9xx, R1xxx

If Sega sucked it up I think the DC would have been able to hold it's own during the PS2/GCN/xbox era.  It had several innovations going for it...plus the system wasn't as underpowered as some editors would like people to think!  Besides, I think the graphical diffrence would be negligble even if Nintendo would release a system a year or 1.5 years before the competition.  It's akin to the diffrence between the 360 and PS3 at the moment...and most likely destroy anything PS3 currently offers.  Let's not forget Nintendo offered a powerful and competent hardware that gave the competition some heat(graphics wise)  for the last 2 generations in N64/PS2/Saturn gen and GCN/PS2/Xbox.  I see them opening up their coffers and putting out a beautiful machine.  Look at the leap between the DS and 3DS...it went from N64 type hardware capability to better than Wii (sub360) level capabilities.

My prediction:

Nintendo: Winter 2012-Spring 2013

Microsoft:  Fall 2013-Winter 2013

Sony: Winter 2013- Spring 2014 (gun shy but competitors will force their hand like how Nintendo is forcing them to release the NGP).