On the topic of Sony, this seems like a lose-lose situation for them. Given that they just started profiting off of the PS3, they wil never get out of the financial hole they are in now unles they pull a Wii/NES with the PS4. If Nintendo launches earlier it wiuld jut get worse for Sony due to reasons already mentioned. My guess is that Nintendo already knows this. If anything, I think they will launch as early as they can to capitaize on this. They probably keep the current Wii on the market as it would still churn out more sales given that it is a legacy console now.
If Microsoft makes decent money off of Kinect, they may not have anything to worry about besides giving up marketshare. If Nintendo launches early, I think Microsoft will launch soon after them, and won't hesitate to launch. They will probably leave the 360 on the market, but won't squeeze every penny out of it. Microsoft is in a better situation then Sony, but what they do depends on Nintendo.
