Kinect Sales by Jan 1st 2012? Predict!

[dunno001]

Hrm... well, it's showing a close to normal curve, but it's leveled off nicely. I'm going to assume a base average of 175K/week. I do think a few known events will cause decent surges, though- I think the language pack upgrade may spur extra sales for a month in Europe, there will be a couple of hit games that help spur more sales; I'm especially predicting a few of  these to get the "hardcore" to buy. And of course, we have the holiday season.

I really think the biggest wildcard will be the summer. Kinect is tapering faster than the Wii at this point, and as such, does have supply availiaible, and can't use scarcity to further spur sales. And I do think it will be summer that sees the next spurt or settle. If MS can do something that reinvigorates the market, I think it will do well for the rest of the year. If what they try fails, or they do nothing, then I think it's going to move more into passé, directly impacting things down to the X-mas boost. MS seems to like doing things with more value, so perhaps, though I know the "hardcore" will hate it, advertise it as a personal workout in the comfort of your own home without the monthly fees of a gym, and the camera can watch you and give you feedback, making sure you're doing it right. If MS can convey this and show how it can get past the limitations of Wii Fit, this (and as a result, 360 sales) will explode. (Never underestimate the fitness market, what with people buying $800 machines to do one thing and all...)

I also think, on the cautious side, that the biggest limiter will be that it is only a peripheral. MS has done a good job of promoting it as a new system launch, and has systems bundled with it for a discount ($100 markup for a $150 item). A failure to continue to drive the versatility of Kinect means that money-conscious gamers looking for a 360 will gravitate away from the Kinect models, keeping the base lower than would be desired.

So, where do I see things by 2012? I'm going to say that it really depends a lot on summer. This is what I see:

The worst case (failed/no summer invigoration, no hit core games, no price drop, loses 'hot thing' status) is 18m. For each of those that MS does right, add 1m to sales. If they can hit all 4, though, I'm going to say 23m instead of 22m. If you want an average for the chart, then put me smack in the middle at 20m.