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Okay, let's be realistic here:

NGP: More of the same.

3DS: More of the same.

Neither company is taking major steps in terms of hardware innovation.  These are linear upgrades of previous models.  Neither handheld appeals to a larger market than the ones which are already established. Therefore, 3DS will be the clear victor, just as DS trumped the PSP.  There are simply no game-changers here.