The Wii's fall from grace

[Ail]

Mummelmann said:

Metallicube said:

Call me crazy, but I still feel Nintendo is in better shape than its competitors. Yes, the HD consoles are finally starting to BAAARELY outsell the Wii, but let's look at all that it took in order for it to happen..

-SEVERAL price drops, especially for the PS3. PS3 has dropped 50% of its initial value after only 3 years, which is pretty unheard of. And it's still struggling in America, the biggest gaming market.

- Multiple bundles and console skews, again, particularly for the PS3.

- Redesigns for BOTH consoles, which in part act as a fresh new launch, as many people run out and rebuy their console. Look at what the redesign did to the DS after all.. So it's almost as if Wii is going up against 4 consoles.

- Universal support of third parties, like 90% of the support as opposed to like 10% for the Wii. More support means more, and better games, which means more sales, and more longevity.

- Motion control devices for BOTH consoles. Kinect in particular has been treated almost like an entirely new console launch for MS.

-The added value of Blu Ray on the PS3, which seems to be having an effect in Japan particularly, as PS3 console sales are high there but game sales are pretty low.

Clearly MS and Sony are more reliant on hardware features to maintain momentum. But you only have so many of these cards.

Wii on the other hand simply needs more games to thrive. Right now it doesn't have them. NSMB, the biggest hardware mover, is now over a year old. If Wii just gets more games that can sell, it easilly negates all of these marketing moves (and yes, a price drop couldn't hurt at this point either ;)). This to me is more sustainable than relying more on hardware features and marketing.

So, basically, the Wii crowd has turned 180 degrees in their reasoing now. Where Blu-ray, HD graphics, price, hardware revisions and motion controls had no significant effect on their battle against the Wii (you know, since it targets the Blue Ocean) they are now the crucial factors in managing to outsell it?

In the last months (counting from October 1st 2010 in this case), as an example, these are significant exclusives and multiplats released for the Wii and PS3 (removed multiplats and exclusives with trivial sales since these will have no impact on hardware sales at any rate):

Wii Exclusive:

Kirby's Epic Yarn

Wii Party

Goldeneye

Epic Mickey

Donkey Kong Country Returns

Super Mario Allstars 25th Anniversary

 

Wii Multiplats:

Call of Duty: Black Ops

DJ Hero 2

Rock Band 3

Star Wars: The Force Unleashed II

Tony Hawk: Shred

WWE Smackdown vs RAW

EA Sport Active 2

Harry Potter and the Deathy Hallows pt1

NFS: Hot Pursuit

Michael Jackson: The Experience

NBA Jam

Monopoly Streets

 

PS3 Exclusives:

Gran Turismo 5

Little Big Planet 2

 

PS3 Multiplats:

Castlevania: Lords of Shadow

Medal of Honor

Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Storm Ninja 2

DJ Hero 2

Fallout: New Vegas

Vanquish

The Sims 3

Rock Band 3

Star Wars The Force Unleashed II

James Bond 007 Bloodstone

WWE Smackdown vs RAW 2011

CoD: Black Ops

AC: Brotherhood

EA Sports Active 2

Need for Speed: Hot Pursuit

DC Universe Online

Dead Space 2

 

The PS3 has more multiplats but the Wii has more exclusives so the tally should be very similar in terms of impact (also, on this very page, you state that Wii AAA games move more hardware than HD AAA games). Arguably, AC: Brotherhood, Medal of Honor and Dead Space 2 are big games but, as mentioned, the Wii has more significant exclusives by far within the same time period so this is pretty much equal. The PS3 has had no price cut (then again; price doesn't matter...) in a long time, the Slim launch is old news and revisions only cause short term boosts anyway according to some (especially the Wii crowd subscribes to this belief, I'm not saying its wrong either mind you). Lastly, as is apparent from the above lists, the PS3 has had no advantage when it comes to software either lately and it still costs 50% more as well. Then why is it outselling the Wii now? What's the reason? Move?

Let's summarize; a while back you had this stance: motion controls for HD consoles are tacked on nonsense that will have no impact on the Wii, price doesn't matter, hardware revisions only cause short term boosts, Blu-ray and other nonsense has no impact on the Wii since it appeals to a different segment of the market.

Now the tune has changed somewhat: Motion controls are now a major factor and are hurting Wii sales, price matters after all (allthough, you lot are back and forth on that point, may change again tomorrow for all I know), hardware revisions cause longterm hardware sales to rise, Blu-ray and other features are now key in defeating the Wii.

The Wii does have games it can sell and brushing off marketing as something best to be avoided in any market and any form of business model is really silly. There is no good reason for the PS3 to be outselling the Wii right now.

Unless; the market and the percieved value of the consoles themselves have changed in this smartphone and tab-crazed society and multimedia, online connectivity, extra features, proper storage and higher output capability are more important than ever to succeed (or keep on succeeding in Nintendo's case) and "future proofing" your product might not be bad at all. Oh, and marketing, one of the cornerstones of any commodity or service is pretty damn important and not to be ignored and perhaps even seen as paramount.

Honestly, when you did you last see a commercial for the Wii on TV?

I don't think I have seen any in the US for over a year....

I see Xbox360 and PS3 commercials weekly ( and Xbox360 has done a terrific job of grabing the news attention with Kinect which translates as free marketing).

The other reason is that some of market segment that Nintendo grabbed ( Blue Ocean as some like to call it) have now moved to other gaming experience. The last 2 years have seen social gaming ( facebook) and phone gaming explode. Sure it's not the same gaming experience than a full HD AAA game, but it's not the same price too and seeing by their success, a huge chunk of the population actually enjoys them. It's like Wii made a segment of the population discover gaming to have it stolen right from under them by newer gaming forms...

And part of that like you point out is NIntendo abyssmal marketing for the past years. They did a kick ass job the first 2 years and since then have totally dropped the ball. Heck I seriously wonder what Regie is doing these days, because he sure isn't earning his salary marketing the Wii.........