Rath on 22 February 2011
He's appeared on state TV saying he's still in Libya. But he's finished, there is almost literally no chance for him now. He has lost the eastern cities entirely, most of his diplomatic leaders are abandoning ship and I can't see violence stopping the revolution at this point.
The violence is a brutal last gasp, but the military will probably abandon ship in the near future too - already there are strong rumours of mass defection.
Bahrain, Yemen, Jordan and others are just as interesting. It appears they may offer enough reform to stabilise their countries. It's still a victory for the protesters, just without the chaos.
