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Frankly, I don't see the need for a hardware price drop from SCE until YoY sales reflect clear losses in demand at current prices and or revised design/manufacturing processes allow the hardware to be produced at lower prices.

That said, a $50 price drop isn't out of the question for 2012. Of course, SCE may just go again with the "increased value" bundling by throwing in a game, movie, controller, whatever at current prices instead.

Under $200 won't happen until there is a complete hardware redesign of the PS3 that is likely to look and feel like a $200 PS3. Or maybe it will just look like little domed Wii.