If Sony can have a steady stream of quality games, like the PS2 did and the PS3 currently has, the NGP can be priced at $300 to $350 and Sony should be able to sell a high enough volumes to keep third parties on board.
Another thing that Sony is doing that they didn't originally do with PS3 is they are open. They aren't shutting developers out when they may need help. That is what turned the tide against Sony in the first place. They rejected helping and Microsoft came in and showed they were willing to help developers learn the 360.
So launching with at least 20 games (new games at retail), with the backlog of the PlayStation Store, at $324.99 is what I see for the NGP's launch.
....that and Sony will have the official name for it on the system by then.
