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NotStan said:

I think the big flaw with your first analysis is the fact that chances are the next Xbox will also be Backward compatible, thus cutting the 360 legs right underneath it, if MS are in the mood to listen to the 360 owners, they'll also allow the gamertags to be transferred to the new console. If anything I think Xbox Live will continue going strong similar to the case when Original Xbox live kept going until several months ago.

If you meant the new games being 360 compatible, chances are the companies will also to do that seeing as it'll likely be cheap ports like the games on PS2

I agree, I didn't mean it will have zero support, just no support from MS. MS can't control the third party. They will likely move on to the next generation.