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Seece said:

It's just too unlikely IMO.

For it to happen it would need next gen to start no earlier than xmas 2013 (likely anyway). Even so ...

(shipped)

2010 - 52 mill (roughly)
2011 - (15) - 67 mill
2012 - (12) - 79 mill
2013 - (9) - 88 mill
2014 - (5) - 93 mill
2015 - (2) - 95 mill

That is pretty much best case scenario, unless a Kinect AND 360 price cut really spur sales beyond belief and a $99 360 has a big legacy in the states.

It has an outside chance but I think 85 mill is a better target.

You know, I don't usally agree with you, but I'll have to agree with you on this one.