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HappySqurriel on 30 January 2011
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zarx said:
HappySqurriel said:

You've got to consider that the maximum cartridge size for Nintendo DS games is (currently) 1 Gigabit or 128 Megabytes; and (from my understanding) these cartridges only started to get used heavily in the past couple of years because of how expensive they're to manufacture.

It is entirely possible that technology has advanced in the past couple of years so that it is as cost effective to release games on 512MB cartridges as it was to release games on 128MB cartridges a couple of years ago; and Sony might have a higher tollerance for the manufacturing cost of games than Nintendo has, so I could see them using a 2GB cartridge out of the gate; but I doubt this would translate into 4GB cartridges for a few years (and probably not 8GB cartridges until late in the generation).

Now, the premium I'm talking about isn't what stores would charge on most titles, which could end up being anywhere from $39 to $59; the premium I'm talking about is that the occasional game that did use the largest cartridge could be $10 (or more) above the cost of the most expensive regular game price. If Sony matched Nintendo's price range, and NGP games were $40 to $50, I would expect to see 4GB NGP games selling for $60 and an 8GB or 16GB game could sell for as much as $90.

My guess on the premium charge is based on more than raw manufacturing costs, and you have to consider that retailres and publishers will both want more money as the price of a game increases to cover losses from reduced sales.

Actually the biggest DS cart is 4 Gbit 512MB and is for Ni No Kuni and the 3DS will have carts of between 1-2GB at launch with the posabillity to go up to 8GB http://www.gamingsurvival.com/content.php?1917-3DS-Cartridge-Size-Revealed.

I don't see NGP games being the same size or smaller than 3DS games TBH and with the ever droping prices and increasing capacities flash bassed memory is seeing I don't think that 2-8 GB (2-4 for launch) carts for the NGP going up to 16-32GB later in life is out of the question. Especially with developers saying stuff like the can pretty much use the same assets as PS3 games and the like.

And considering that I don't really see how sony can justify selling games cheaper than PS3 games given the more expensive media. The graphics level of the NGP is going to mean that development is more expensive for oprigonal games than the 3DS which already has $40-50 games, unless publishers can expect higher sales rates on NGP games than 3DS games, they will ether be more expensive, mostly lacking content or be ports and spin-offs that reuse assets, it's just ecconomics.

If the NGP is going to deliver PS360 like games on the go like SONY claim they are going to need to charge console prices and have media at least matching that of a DL DVD at arround 8GB, otherwise the games are going to be very short...

P.S. I know that the NGP isn't really PS360 level and doesn't require the same level of assets and digital media with no seek time will eleminate the need to duplicate data but developers are starting to complain about the capacity of DVDs. So having said that I think 4GB will probably be what most games way in at, with exeotions like the hopeful Gran Torismo game and the possible port of MGS 4/Rising.

P.P.S. It's lat and I can't be bothered proof reading this


The more I think about it, the more I think we're mostly in agreement; potentially with some disagreement on the exact numbers.

In general, there is a size of cartridge today that is (probably) cost competitive with optical media and releasing games on this will have virtually no impact on the price you sell it for; I would expect this is around 512MB. Above this level there is a size of card that is adequate to be used in full priced games without needing to charge significnatly more to cover the cost of the card; and I would say thatthis is probably around 1GB to 2GB. Beyond this level, there is probably another level where you could afford to release a game on it as long as it had a $10 premium; and I think this level is probably around 4GB. And above this, it becomes impractical to release games on larger cards because of the cost associated with them.

Now, about every 18 months we should expect to see the amount of storage space at each price level (effectively) double; and late in the NGP's life, much larger cards will be appropriate for the NGP to release game on.