I'm going to admit, I don't, for any reason, expect the NGP to beat the 3DS in lifetme sales. Nor do I believe this is what really matters.
The PSP was Sony's first foray into hand-helds and it has been successful. Yes, they may have not "beat" the DS in lifetime sales, but the PSP more than made a profit for Sony. The "DS vs. PSP," "360 vs. PS3," "Wii vs, the world" and on are just fodder for those of us with too much information to argue with each other about. All that matters for private companies is whether they get a return on their investment and then some.
Furthermore, I don't expect the 3DS and NGP to sale higher than the DS and PSP. I expect their lifetime sales to be much lower. Why? Look at the context.
Back in 2004 and 2005 when the DS and PSP were released, it was 2 to 3 years before the first iPhone was released in 2007. Sure, the BlackBerry was the first "smartphone," but it was strictly for business while the iPhone was marketed towards a mass audience. In effect, Nintendo and Sony had 2 to 3 years to build up their playerbases to counter-act the onslaught of gaming on smartphones.
In 2011, Nintendo and Sony do not have the "no smartphone" advantage they did in the mid 2000s. For this reason alone, I fully believe both (3DS and NGP) will have lower lifetime sales than the DS and PSP.
If anything, what the NGP will do is assist smartphones in becoming the preferred hand-held gaming device. The NGP is both a legitimate hand-held and smartphone (Android capabilities). The NGP may not sell anywhere as high as the 3DS, but it will change expectations and change them drastically.
The NGP will flip the establishment thinking concerning hand-helds as strictly gaming on it's head and turn it out. People will think, why am I paying $250 for a single use device when Sony, Apple, Microsoft, Verizon and others are capable of satisfying both my gaming and communication needs?
Why pay $250 for a single use device and $40 to $50 per game when for $300 I have purchased both my hand-held gaming device and smartphone?
Why does Nintendo charge $40 to $50 game when my cousin with Sony's NGP can buy and download games via PSN on his NGP for $10 to $20?
Why are the Internet functions on the 3DS so backward compared to the NGP, iPhone, Android and Windows phone?
Questions like this will be asked and will change the expectations over time.
This is what the NGP will do, and I believe it is Sony's main counter-attack against Nintendo's assault on their 3D business with the 3DS.
