Honestly I think if Sony had a chance at dethroning Nintendo then the origional PSP was that chance. The NGP could take more market share away from Nintendo then the first PSP if Sony plays its cards right.
In order for NGP to take a 40% marketshare or have a chance at dethroning Nintendo I think
#1. NGP needs to launch at 250USD or less (not likely going to happen)
#2. It needs to have all of Sony's biggest IP's (Looks like that is happening)
#3. Needs to have all of the third party hits availible (Possability)
#4. Needs to take full advantage of the touch screen and track pad, gyroscopes etc...etc... (Might happen)
#5. Not be just a games console, use movies augmented reality and GPS to make it something more, 3G etc...etc...
#6. Cut dev costs down as much as possible, promote apps as well to encourage more development (Which Sony seems to be doing)
#7. Make sure their is more then enough supply to meet demand, the first year of sales is usually one of the biggest and most important.
Those are the seven biggest things I can think of off the top of my head. I think all seven would need to be executed very well in order for Sony to steal marketshare from Nintendo, if they were to beat Nintendo I think they would have to do even better then the seven things listed above.
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer
