HappySqurriel said:
As for the new best sellers ... The PSP2 will require larger development teams and longer time-lines to produce exclusive games than the 3DS will; and this means that, even if developers are supporting both platforms equally, the 3DS will see far more games released to it. On top of these exclusively developed games, the 3DS will probably see ports from the Dreamcast, PS2, Gamecube, XBox and Wii while the PSP2 might see ports from the PS3 and XBox 360; and this works out to being far more games for the 3DS than the PSP. Now you may be asking 'Why does the quantity of games mater for million selling games?' and the answer to this is that break-out successes tend to be somewhat unpredictable; and the more games that are released the more likely it is to have a breakout success. When a platform sees the release of 2500 games it is far more likely that the next Guitar Hero or Pokemon will be created on that platform than the system that only has 250 games released. |
I'm not totally sure how much we can judge about PSP2 development yet. While better graphics = more cost generally, it's worth remembering that even if 3DS games have worse graphics, the programmers have to do alot to get it running in 3D, which is more expensive. Early estimates pin 3DS developement in line with that of the Wii.
The other thing to remember is that all those studio's making PS3/360 games should already be well equiped to get games up and running on the PSP2 (Port or no Port) and the technology will hopefully be more familiar from the off (Albeit we've yet to see any interviews, minus talk of easy PS3 ports running on the thing).
I would also point out a flaw in your 3DS ports from wii / ps2 etc. It's not always that easy seeing as alot of games won't suit the input. Porting from something with motion controls to something that's supposed to use 2 screens, one a touch screen, and only 1 analogue stick isn't always viable, whereas PSP2 is designed to pretty much replicate any port button for button (With I assume L2/R2 on the back touchpad).
While 3DS development will probably be cheaper, I don't think the difference will be particually big. If PSP2 games cost more and sell more via digital services, then that cost gap could easily be negated by extra revenue per sale too - albeit we'll have to wait and see what Sony's strategy is there.
I'm not saying the PSP2 will get more games or anything but I think you've giving the 3DS too much credit and ignoring how well placed the PSP2 is to get good support - provided it can actually sell software, which I guess is going to be the biggest long-term test of the device.