Welcome to the forum Bruce, its always nice to have another viewpoint here and don't let the fact that folks jump right into debate deter you. We might be a feisty bunch but we try to keep it civil =)
On that note, I do feel I have to echo the sentiment expressed by others. But first let me say I definitely appreciate the market position of MS and Sony and I have actually entered predictions in the prediction league on this site that both will increase hardware sales for 2008. They both have strong brands with appeal to the core gamer and their games reflect that with brands that are equally strong and in some cases stronger.
Unfortunately I think much of the "shock" people experience from the success of the Wii is from underestimating the casual market, which I feel you have done, and I will explain why and how. People identify the video game market with the Halo, GTA, and MGS4 style of games and so traditionally when they look at a list of games those are going to stand out and be the big titles. I believe the disconnect comes when they try to apply this same formula onto the Wii and attempt to quantify or predict its success based on that formula which I believe you have done here as most analysts, columnists, and enthusiasts have done before you.
Ironically the path Nintendo has chosen for its Console and Portable hardware strategy is to remove emphasis on niche core gaming and return emphasis to a "Games are for everyone" type of approach. A short time ago this type of strategy was thought foolhardy as the mainstream looked down on games for the most part. But the irony is that this strategy that got them to where they are is diametrically opposed to the types of paradigms people use to define and explain it. So really there is no mystery in the continued underestimation of the Wii and the reasons behind it.
Whether people like it, love it, hate it, or could care less about it, the Wii is changing the way the mainstream views video games and in doing so they are changing the market landscape. As the pioneers of this new market landscape they are of course best equipped to deal with it and I think not only are rival companies ill-prepared, but so to are reviewers, journalists, developers, and clearly analysts as well.
So the question I would pose is this: How many expectations must Nintendo, the DS, and the Wii shatter before "the industry" starts recognizing this shift?
I don't believe Nintendo is preparing to swallow the industry or that it will become the unstoppable juggernaut it once was. But when a console ramps up its production higher than any console ever has and continues to sell out in most markets for more than a year past launch and continues to do so to this day....when a handheld brings moms and grandmas, and dads and grandpas into the game shop...when a console gets your aunt, uncle, or your wife interested in gaming....well I would hope most people would take pause and realize that this type of thing is something more than just a simple passing fad. That there is deep and genuine consumer interest and that maybe...just maybe...the GTA, Halo, and MGS style games aren't going to be the deciding factors they once were.
This of course opens a whole other debate about what becomes of the old paradigm and its landmarks, but I will leave that for another day.
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