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SamuelRSmith on 23 January 2011
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ArcticGabe said:
SamuelRSmith said:
ArcticGabe said:
 

 


China's economy is going to equal USA's in six years? That means it would have to triple in size in six years... yeah, that's not happening.

Even the most optimistic estimates for China's economy exceeding USA's is around 2030... and those always assume that China will be able to have a growth rate of above 8% a year. That's not going to happen, they'll probably be growing at 5-6% by the end of this decade.

If you also factor the huge property bubble which will burst, I don't think we could realistically see China taking USA's position until atleast 2035, 2040... and then when you go by a per capita basis... frankly, it's not going to happen this century.

That's Normal GDP you are talking about, when counting a country's normal GDP, we always convert the country's GDP into US dollar, and some countries' currency are severely under valued. Like the Chinese RMB is about 50% under valued against US Dollar according to US politicans and economists.

For Normal GDP, The growth rate of China is above 10% this year, and if USA don't want to get caught up before 2020, they need to grow 2.5% per year in the next decade...  not gonna happen imo.

So enjoy your last decade of world domination USA, we will have a much more balanced world lead by the peaceful Chinese Dragon very soon.


Yes, true, I even made that comment earlier in the thread. However, China's currency won't stay valued that low for long, China has some severe inflation woes, and letting go of currency controls will be a route that they have to take. So, yes, this will mean that in the Normal measure, China will make huge gains on the USA as the conversion rate favours China.... but the matter of the fact is, the rate of growth will drop, and so it will still take longer for China to catch.

Also, PPP measure favours emerging markets as commodity prices are relatively cheap, as these countries develop, the gap between the Normal and PPP measure shrinks