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Munkeh111 said:

I would say price is going to be the main issue initially, but another potential issue is picking up the casual users. Why would someone who bought the DS for things like Brain Training pick up a new one?

You and Wagram make a good point.  Previously I said that if my concerns turn out to be moot, then the 3DS will see the same success of the DS.  But after thinking aobut it, I have changed my mind.  Yes it will still be successful, but I see it making numbers closer to the GBA, ~85 mil.  The DS's success is partly attributed to being able to bring in the casual market, something all Nintendo handhelds have been able to do.  This is again is partly because Nintendo has been able to release with a good price compared to the competition.  In the case of the DS, $149 wasn't too much for what the DS offered for casual gamers.  Now jump to 2011, and the 3DS is releasing for $249-$299 and games have gone up in price.  Will that same person pay $100-$150 more, when all they want is a similar gaming experience.

Then there is always the price of the PSP2.  If Sony can get release at the same price of the 3DS, or even within a $50 difference,  than the 3DS isn't going to be the "easy" choice the DS was, when you saw a $149 product next to a $249 one.  This will cause people to actually do some more research and find out which one they prefer, either 3D with stylus or more power with dual analogs.