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I'd base it soley on the speech... well and the Clintonian like compromise on taxes.

Unemployment dropped, but for every person who found a job, two people stopped looking.

Not exactly a good unemployment change as if things in the economy and unemployment DO come around eventually those people will enter the unemployment force again. 


Meaning unemployment will either rise again or unemployment rates will crawl when they inch up.   There is a reason EVERYONE in the Fed is trying to brace America for what they've called so far a "Jobless recovery."

To expect him to sail to reelection is a stretch.

I think he'll probably and up like W.

Win reelection by default due to a weak field of opposition.