One of the sticking points for downloadable movies in the near future would be the growth of HD. Last I heard around 30% of American households now have a HDTV and I would think that most of them want to use that TV for HD content when they can. While SD movies are at a small enough size (compared to the newer HDDs) to be feasible, HD movies are still too large for mass support via downloading. When I see something like an iPod or Zune w/ 500gb+ worth of storage space (not too far off really) & a higher average speed for broadband internet here in the US(will probably be a LONG time) downloadable movies might be the "next big thing."
You also need to take into account that some areas of the world have broadband that they pay for the amount of bandwidth they use(sort of like cellphone minutes) rather than just a straight up connection like a lot of Americans do. Pretty sure I've heard a few Aussies say something about their connections along those lines. Were broadband at the same level as in Korea & Japan for the rest of the world I might say differently but for the near future downloadable movies will be a negligible market.
I'd also like to say that I personally download TV series to stream from my computer to my PS3 but I don't see that as a replacement to buying the DVDs. Generally the episodes I download are from the current season or from a season that hasn't been released on DVD yet.
I can understand need of the gaming industry to switch to a format where they can eliminate resellers (Used games at Gamestop). However, if for the PS4 (or any system) I'm not given the choice of a physical copy vs. download I probably won't bother with the system. When you've had as many HDD failures as I have you're not going to be a fan of not having a physical copy or backup. Not to mention I really enjoy having physical copies of my software.
