http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinect#Launch
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/microsoft_move_3gVmAyryJuD6px1dV7LeDP?CMP=OTC-rss&FEEDNAME=
http://123kinect.com/microsoft-spend-kinect-marketing/
It's likely some of the ad campaigns funded with those $500million are still running, but according to most articles written about it and based on MS itself's statements, that budget is for launch and will be spent in a quite short term, although it should be longer than just till Xmas.
And it's totally clear that this budget adds up with the usual Xmas 360 marketing, it's clearly stated that those $500million are for Kinect launch, not for anything else.
About Wii, its huge marketing effort this Xmas is evident, it did almost the same numbers than the previous one, despite lower results through the rest of 2010 compared to 2009.
But it's also evident that Sony did a smaller marketing effort than its competitors. And despite this, its Xmas 2010 was overall slightly better than Xmas 2009 anyway, although it had smaller weekly peaks. Having good results despite keeping a lower profile than competitors is surely a good sign.
