The PSP2 could win, (or at least gain marketshare) if these things happen
1. Actually support the damn thing
Ok Sony's first party PSP support has been crap all gen long. Most games are PS2/PS3 spin-offs, and there isn't much of a "killer app". The true killer app came in '09 (Gran Turismo), but by that time, nobody really cared about it anymore.
Sony needs to put some of their 1st party muscle behind the PSP2. None of their "A" teams ever really worked on the PSP. Polyphony Digital made GTPSP, but that was the only quality 1st party PSP game in existence.
2. Give it a distinct feature
One of the major problems with the PSP was its lack of a distinct feature. It did have a media player, but the iPhone excecuted the media thing even better. The PSP was essentially a portable PS2 with the PS3's interface, and media features. Sony will need to give it a defining feature (what feature? I don't know), to compete with the 3DS.
3. Price
The 3DS's price seems steep for a handheld, but it is worth it, if Sony can make it cheap, AND give it mass market appeal, the PSP2 will blow the 3DS away.
Simply put, the PSP needs to be competitively priced. I would say US$175-229, with nothing, and US$200-250 with a game.
4. Horsepower
The PSP was essentially a PS2. The DS was an N64. The 3DS looks like it has power between the Wii, and 360. I expect the PSP2 to have power approaching the Wii. If Sony decides to get conservative, the PSP2 could have power near the Gamecube, or Xbox (after all, both were a lot more powerful than the PS2). Knowing Sony, the PSP2 will make a huge leap in terms of power. THIS SHOULD NOT HAPPEN!! Sony putting PS3 power into the PSP2 would jack the price up, and drain the already slow battery. Power in between the Wii and 360, should be ideal.
As long as they do those things and other stuff people mentioned, (UMDs, Dual Analog Sticks etc) Sony can gain marketshare on Nintendo.
