Sony has a real chance of dethroning Nintendo 3DS

[dunno001]

Hrm... I'm not going to say one way or the other definitively, since there are too many unknowns in the equation. However, my gut is telling me that it won't happen. This is how I see things:

Pricing: The 3DS launch price will be between $250 and $300. The average 3DS game will go up to $40 retail, with a few games having what some have dubbed a "Square-Enix tax" trying for $50. I do not believe that the $50 games will do well, and those attempts will be short-lived, setting the base price at $40. The PSP2 I think is more shrouded in mystery, based on Sony's knowledge of the power of a price. I think they are waiting for Nintendo's official MSRP on the 3DS before finalizing the PSP2 specs, with the intent on selling the system at retail for the same price as the 3DS, and the wholesale being near cost, to get it to be more powerful than the 3DS. However, I do not think that PSP2 games will go up in price; they will remain at $40.

Battery: Nintendo has released figures for the 3DS, and given that they are in-line with what the DSi is officially stated at, I expect a similar rate for the 3DS. I think that the 2200 mAh battery that was an extra for the PSP will become standard in the PSP2, to try and bolster the battery life, addressing a PSP complaint. The UMD motor will mean that the battery for the PSP2 will still be less than the 3DS, but I do think that they will push download much more heavily, and that will give it a longer life than the 3DS.

Games: This is tough to guess. We have some of the games announced for the 3DS, and I do think that some of them will do quite well and drive the system. With no information on the PSP2 games, I can't predict on that. For new games, an argument can be made for both systems. The 3DS gives both the established brand and the ability to do 3D, whereas the PSP will have more power and Sony has shown that they are working much harder to curb piracy on the system, resulting in a larger percentage of its userbase purchasing. I actually think the biggest pusher for the PSP2 will be the ability to get PS2 games from PSN.

Marketshare: And we end with the hardest to guess. With my predicting price to be the same for both, that should be a non-issue. So we have games and brand to sell it, and I think Nintendo has both of these. For games, people know the Nintendo staples, and when they walk into a game store (or section), the DS dwarfs the PSP, driving perception that the DS has more games and will be more worth the money. I also think the much later launch of the PSP2 will hurt it, causing its marketshare to be below what the PSP was with the DS. (No, the PSP was not a failure; it is by far the most successful non-Nintendo handheld.) However, the failure to further penetrate the handheld market means that I think Sony will pull out of the portable market. Not for a lack of profitability, but as an attempt to better use their resources to push where they have more success- the PS3 and PS4.