I don't count hand-helds or even hold them on the same breath with consoles, so I won't discuss them because frankly I don't care for them unless they have a long distance plan with free texting.
Here is my want for the next generation start date:
Nintendo Mii - Announced E3 2011. Released mid-2012 or holidays 2012.
Microsoft NextBox - Announced holidays 2011. Released holidays 2012 or early to mid-2013.
Sony PlayStation 4 - Announced early 2012. Released holidays 2013 or early to mid-2014.
I honestly believe with the Wii's year-over-year console sales dropping since 2008, Nintendo ain't going to let Sony shine by letting this generation last until 2014 or 2016. Not to say Nintendo does not care about Microsoft, but I think the domestic competition between Sony and Nintendo has made them the fiercest of rivals.
Microsoft with the Kinect is already transitioning into the next generation. I give the Kinect another year to year and a half before the news of the next Xbox console breaks. Microsoft ain't going to pull the plug on the 360 before Nintendo ends this generation.
Lastly, and rightfully so (sorry couldn't resist a cheap shot), Sony will wait it out. I am in the camp that 2011 will be one of the best IF not the best year for the PS3 due to the awesome 2011 PS3 lineup of software. Furthermore, Sony has stated that the PS3 is on a 10 year life span, which if we take literally would mean the PS4 would be released in 2016.
As we all know, consoles released more than 18 months after (Nintendo 64 released in 1996; Sony PlayStation released in 1994) and/or at a considerably higher rate than the competition (PS3's laughably absurd $600 entry point price) are guaranteed failure in the race for the generation's #1 console. Knowing this, Sony will have to cut short their "plan" by 2 years or more just to make sure they have a market to come into once the Mii and NextBox have been on the market for a year or more.
