Sooo.. 65M by 2012?

[damndl0ser]

Mummelmann said:

kowenicki said:

Mummelmann said:

superchunk said:

Until 2010, x360 was barely reaching 10m/year. It currently stands at 51m. That means it needs about 14m units to hit 65m. Considering 2010 was its best year ever with a slim model launch and a surprisingly (to me) successful Kinect and it just reached 14m for the year, I think I'd bet on it not reaching 65m.

More than likely there will be a price drop. I think Kinect will still be successful, but not continue to sell at this rate now that xmas is over. I think by the end of this year we'll be hearing rumblings about next gen.

All of this to me means x360's best result is back to around 10-12m in 2011. Thus, it should break 60m, but not 65m; IMHO.

Sounds about right. Save for a price cut there isn't a whole lot left to drive sales and the console itself is already more than affordable. I don't think it will sell as well as 2010 this year, the last quarter was insane and I can't see it pulling several million weeks in the holiday season again.

All three consoles will be down yoy I think.

so basivally you are saying kinect is a one year wonder? 

If it isnt a one year wonder and it behaves more like a console, as I believe it will, then it will def have a better second xmas than first.

One year wonder? No, not quite but I don't expect it to move anywhere near as well this holiday season as it did in 2010. The current gen consoles are getting old, Kinect or not and the new generation is probably right around the corner. We may even hear announcements of new consoles in 10-15 months imo.

There is almost no chance of the 360 announcing a new console in 10-15 months.  If Microsoft decides they want to bring out a new console around a year after its most successful year ever they are idiots.   Were at least 2 years away from any kind of announcement.  Unless of course the 360 crashes and burns (under 8 million sales).  And I don't see that happening any time soon.  If anything this year will see sales pretty close to last years, if not a few more.