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Borkachev said:

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The HD formats are never going to be as popular as DVD, no. But that doesn't mean there's "no future" for them. A significant number of high-end consumers are going to want hi-def movies, and when prices drop to the level of DVDs over the next few years and HDTV penetration becomes total, many casual consumers will make the move too. 25% of the home video market is realistic, I would guess, and they may well do better than that in the end. That would be a huge success, and everyone involved would profit. Remember, laserdisk was considered a successful (if niche) product, and the HD formats are already more mainstream than that ever was in terms of things like retailer shelf space. They have nowhere to go but up.

 

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HDTV penetration becomes total?  Definitely not in a few years, and probably not in 10.  Remember, DVDs were designed to be used in players connected to standard-def TVs.  I can't imagine most consumers going out in the next few years and replacing all the TV's in their homes just so they can play HD material.  When Bill and Sue consumer are 56 years old and just want to watch the latest sitcom and the evening news, they're not going to run out and replace their 2-3 TVs so they can watch the Discovery Channel or the SciFi Channel or Letterman or a Blu-ray movie in HD.

 

The US government realized it was folly to try and force 100% HD adoption... that's why they're going to make certain down-converting equipment can be purchased for cheap before the broadcast-HD switchover.