HD DVD is dead; Blu Ray will lose the war

[smgod2]

rocketpig said:

Smidlee said:

If I'm not mistaken not long after the PS2 came out DVD players became very cheap. Why do you think it will be any different with Blu-Ray players?

Also in order to downloaded movies (unlike music) you got to have boardband which isn't cheap in itself.

This is a common misconception when talking about the current format war. DVD standalone players were already under $150 and were selling by the millions before the PS2 released. I'm not saying that Blu-ray will fail but the circumstances are much different this time around.

I forsee one of two things happening:

- Blu-ray penetrates the market and by 2012 or so, starts rivaling DVD in media sales.

- Blu-ray fails to gain enough steam before a new, improved physical media releases and ultimately succumbs to this new format.

Either way, physical media will always exist, though not to the extent we've seen with DVD. DLC will take a portion of the market, the real question is how much it will take.

 Agreed.