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It's going to be interesting seeing which one of these sells the most in the end. I'm personally thinking it looks to be Mario Kart Wii.

MKWii is actually selling more than NSMB Wii in Others right now. It seems to me that they're going to sell roughly the same as each other there from now on out. In fact, Mario Kart Wii seems more prone to outsell NSMB Wii from today and out than vice versa.

They're both virtually dead in Japan, from here on and out it's a tie there.

Which means that NSMB Wii needs to catch up 5 million on MKWii in Americas alone. That's going to be seriously tough, and requires NSMB Wii to sell a fair bit over 20 million in Americas.