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People seem to forget that Killzone 3 will have to do better than killzone 2 by a margin, first of all, killzone 2 came after killzone 1, which isn't half as known as killzone 2, so people didn't even know that much about this IP. Second of all, very weak marketing from Sony, resulting in more unawareness. 

Third, there is the move compatibility and 3D additions which will help the sales. Fourth I am expecting Sony to bundle killzone 3 a bit like UC 2.

The split screen will play a part as well. Not to mention all of this coupling with double the install base.