Some people in this thread seem to have reading comprehension issues, or I do, because I don't see where Squilliam said exclusives are not important. He said they become less important as you get later into the generation. Gamers on forums such as this one may love to throw exclusives lists around to show who has the bigger epeen but the average consumer doesn't care all that much about exclusives. Putting Nintendo aside because I feel it's not exactly the same demographic as the HD twins which seem to share the shame demographic the biggest selling franchises this gen have been the multiplat games. Sure an Uncharted 3 or a Halo Reach MIGHT convince someone to get the competing console but this late in the generation I think that's less likely to happen.
The biggest reason, whether some like it or not, is not games but price/value. Xbox might end up costing more in the long run when you factor in Xbox Live but the price of entry right off the bat is lower.
Also to those saying the timed exclusives will hurt MS next gen I think that'll have very little effect. You can be sure MS will make sure gamerscores and friends lists carry over so unless they pull a Sony from earlier this gen and alienates a lot of their former fanbase I think MS will be just fine. Who cares if the competition gets a game a year later, you've already played it and moved on to something else. I don't think the average consumer is buying more than 5-10 games a year.
